WHAT IS POLITICAL SCIENCE?

INTRODUCTION.

       The definition of political science has changed
over time as scholars have approached the study of politics in different ways, Political science can basically be defined as the authoritative allocation of values or who gets what, when and how.  

     Aristotle (384 BCE – 322 BCE) is recognized as the inventor of scientific methods, the development of the scientific method emerges in the history of science itself.                

     

    The Oxford English Dictionary defines the scientific method as "a method or procedure that has characterized natural method of investigation involving observation and theory to test scientific hypotheses. Scientific method since the 17th century, consist of systematic observation, measurement, and experiment, and the formulation, testing, and modification of hypotheses.

The scientific method is a body of techniques for investigating phenomena, acquiring new knowledge, or correcting and integrating previous knowledge. To be termed scientific, a method of inquiry is commonly based on empirical or measurable evidence subject to specific principles of reasoning.

The scientific method is an ongoing process, which usually begins with observations about the natural world. Human beings are naturally inquisitive, so they often come up with questions about things they see or hear and often develop ideas (hypotheses) about why things are the way they are. The best hypotheses lead to predictions that can be tested in various ways, including making further observations about nature.

Composition of scientific methods.

Four essential elements of the scientific method they are the following:

Characterizations: (observation definitions, and measurements of the subject of inquiry)

Hypotheses: (theoretical, hypothetical explanations of observations and measurements of the subject)

Predictions: (reasoning including logical deduction from the hypothesis or theory)

Experiments: (tests of all of theabove)         

The four points above is sometimes offered as a guideline for proceeding for scientific methods.

Formulation of a question.

The question can refer to the explanation of a specific observation, as in "Why is man regarded as a political animal”.  This stage frequently involves looking up and evaluating evidence from previous experiments, personal scientific observations or assertions, and or the work of other scientists. If the answer is already known, a different question that builds on the previous evidence can be posed. When applying the scientific method to scientific research, determining a good question can be very difficult and affects the final outcome of the investigation.

Explanations and predictions (our main focus) are part of scientific procedures and they are relevant to Political analysis a branch of political science because is a science because Science seeks to explain through the power of prediction by offering systematic, reasoned anticipation of future events, that once confirmed, provide evidence that the scientific knowledge responsible for generating the prediction is correct.

Predictions from the hypothesis.

Any useful hypothesis will enable predictions, by reasoning including deductive reasoning. It might predict the outcome of an experiment in a laboratory setting or the observation of a phenomenon in nature. The prediction can also be statistical and deal only with probabilities. Any useful hypothesis will enable predictions, by reasoning including deductive reasoning. It might predict the outcome of an experiment in a laboratory setting or the observation of a phenomenon in nature. The prediction can also be statistical and deal only with probabilities.

It is essential that the outcome of testing such a prediction be currently unknown. Only in this case does a successful outcome increase the probability that the hypothesis is true. If the outcome is already known, it is called a consequence and should have already been considered while formulating the hypothesis. If the predictions are not accessible by observation or experience, the hypothesis is not yet testable and so will remain to that extent unscientific in a strict sense.

Top of FormBottom of FormRelationship between Explanation and Prediction

 The relationship between explanation and prediction; one view regards them basically the same, while other view finds them fundamentally different. But nevertheless there cannot be a valid prediction without having a proper explanation.

PREDICTION.

This step involves determining the logical consequences of the hypothesis. One or more predictions are then selected for further testing. The more unlikely that a prediction would be correct simply by coincidence, then the more convincing it would be if the prediction were fulfilled; evidence is also stronger if the answer to the prediction is not already known, due to the effects of hindsight bias . Ideally, the prediction must also distinguish the hypothesis from likely alternatives; if two hypotheses make the same prediction, observing the prediction to be correct is not evidence for either one over the other.

 Prediction remains the basic goal of social sciences. In a way, capacity to predict events indicates scientific development and growth of a discipline, including a theory. Prediction enables us to apply knowledge involved in a theory or science to solve practical problems of organised political life. It enables us to anticipate and avert negative events that might occur in future.

Structurally, predictions are identical with explanations.They have, like explanations,covering laws and initial conditions with the difference that in explanations the conclusion already occurs, and the explanans are sought, but in predictions the logic are given and the conclusion is sought. Every adequate explanation is potentially a prediction, and every adequate prediction can be treated as a potential explanation. When relevant information in the explanans is missing, it is not possible to predict the event or explanandum. Sometimes prediction takes place without being able to explain. The statistical prediction of election-results is far better than explanation of those results. Prediction without explanation may take place when only some initial conditions are known but none of the covering laws are known or specified. But such prediction cannot be considered as informed or scientific prediction. An event can be explained and predicted when covering laws and initial condi­tions are discovered and made known.

EXPLANATION.

Explanation also called Hypothesis

A hypothesis is a speculation, a suggested explanation of a phenomenon, or alternately a reasoned proposal suggesting a possible correlation between or among a set of phenomena. The success of a hypothesis, or its service to science, lies not simply in its perceived "truth", or power to displace, subsume or reduce a predecessor idea, but perhaps more in its ability to stimulate the research that will illuminate bald suppositions and areas of vagueness based on knowledge obtained while formulating the question, that may explain the observed behavior of a part of our universe.

An hypothesis is a speculation, based on knowledge obtained while formulating the question, that may explain the observed behavior of a part of our universerequires knowledge of necessary and sufficient conditions. But Social Sciences have only limited measure of that knowledge. A successful theory stands on its explanatory power.

There are two criteria of evaluating this explanatory power:

(a) Making of scientific prediction, or

(b) Providing understanding.

 Problems and issues affecting explantions and prediction.

Explanation and prediction in scientific work are also usually accompanied by estimates of their uncertainty,Sometimes scientist and reserchers may make systematic errors during their experiments, veer from standard methods and practices for various reasons, or, in rare cases, deliberately report false results. Occasionally because man is the reagent of the study of political science and man is unrealiable and uncertain.  Dilthey, Wildenband, Weber and others put emphasis on the power of man in determining their environment. political behavior is very complex, people can intentionally mislead researchers, and data can be difficult or impossible to attain.Philosophical objections: human reasoning cannot be objectively measured and facts are conditioned by the observer’s perceptions and opinions.

Prediction can be scientific only when we are able to know all causative factors or have knowledge of all necessary and sufficient conditions making an event. Till we are able to do it, political scientists cannot make scientific predictions. As such, they cannot talk of ‘control’ over human events. Therefore, we cannot accept Hempel’s proposition to evaluate theories only on the basis of their ‘power of making predictions’. Therefore Analysis and Explanation do not stop at any destination of making ‘scientific prediction’.

Explanations are always problematic, always imperfect, and always uncertain. Their quality depends on logical coherence compatibility with other accepted explanations in the field, experimental evidence, of course, use to achieve the purpose. There are various grounds for criticising explanations, but all of them cannot be properly justified.

Explanations are in some respects analogous to maps. Using conven­tional symbols and transformation rules that link them to the environment, maps produce a record of particular observations that tells us what to expect when certain landmarks are sighted.

In general, the strongest tests of hypotheses come from carefully controlled and replicated experiments that gather empirical data. Depending on how well the tests match the predictions, the original hypothesis may require refinement, alteration, expansion or even rejection. If a particular hypothesis becomes very well supported a general theory may be developed.  Science seeks to explain through the power of prediction by offering systematic, reasoned anticipation of future events that once confirmed, provide evidence that the scientific knowledge responsible for generating the prediction is correct. Once predictions are made, they can be sought by experiments. If the test results contradict the predictions, the hypotheses which entailed them are called into question and become less tenable. Scientists assume an attitude of openness and accountability on the part of those conducting an experiment but man being the regent is bound to be corrupted.

References.

1. ·         Arrow, K. J. 1963. Social Choice and Individual Values, 2nd edn. New Haven, Cann.: Yale University
2. ·         Wikipedia.

• Born Max (1949), Natural Philosophy of Cause and Chance
• Gauch, Hugh G., Jr. (2003), Scientific Method in Practice
• Pooja Articles.

·         3. World Wide Web.

·         4. Advance English Dictionary.